Hi! I’m Adam. I like statistics. Especially applied methods work for strategic decision making.
I work on epidemic forecasting with the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.
Currently, I’m developing the epidist package for estimating epidemiological delay distributions, and supporting state-level modelling of time-varying reproduction numbers and respiratory infection nowcasts.
I completed my PhD “Bayesian spatio-temporal methods for small-area estimation of HIV indicators” at Imperial College London supervised by Seth Flaxman and Jeffrey Imai-Eaton. I was part of the StatML CDT, HIV Inference Group, and Machine Learning & Global Health Network.
During my PhD, I worked on comparing models for area-level spatial correlation, estimating district-level HIV risk group proportions (Howes et al. 2023), and developing deterministic Bayesian inference methods, motivated by the Naomi small-area evidence synthesis model (Eaton et al. 2021; Esra et al. 2024).
I was once a visiting researcher at the MIT Media Lab working on the Nucleic Acid Observatory project for detecting biological threats, and at the University of Waterloo working on deterministic Bayesian inference methods with Alex Stringer.
After my PhD, I worked at the University of Oxford modelling food security with the WFP, and worked on the helios package to support Blueprint Biosecurity’s far UVC road-mapping efforts.
For anyone in and around London, and interested in chatting statistics or other topics, let me know! Finally, if you have feedback that might help me improve as a person or in my work, I have an anonymous form here which you can fill out.