Hi! I’m Adam. I like statistics. Especially applied methods work for strategic decision making. I currently work on epidemic forecasting at the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. I also do some modelling for Blueprint Biosecurity’s far UVC road-mapping efforts.
Previously, I completed my PhD “Bayesian spatio-temporal methods for small-area estimation of HIV indicators” at Imperial supervised by Seth Flaxman and Jeffrey Imai-Eaton. I was part of the StatML CDT, HIV Inference Group, and Machine Learning & Global Health Network.
I worked on comparing models for area-level spatial correlation, estimating district-level HIV risk group proportions (Howes et al. 2023), and developing deterministic Bayesian inference methods, motivated by the Naomi model (Eaton et al. 2021; Esra et al. 2024).
I was once a visiting researcher at the MIT Media Lab working on the Nucleic Acid Observatory project, and at the University of Waterloo working on deterministic Bayesian inference methods with Alex Stringer. After my PhD, I worked at the University of Oxford modelling food security with the WFP.
For anyone in and around London, and interested in chatting statistics, let me know! Finally, if you have feedback that might help me improve as a person or in my work, I have an anonymous form here which you can fill out.